Handicapping the NCAA tournament isn’t an easy thing, of course. Everyone’s done the office pool, picked the wrong 12 over the 5, taken them to the Sweet 16, and gotten crushed in the bargain. When the NCAA’s roll around, we’ve got teams that would never normally play each other matching up in double-ups, leading to blowout victories for both teams, the home team in this case. It’s nothing new, either. The NCAA’s have been structured that way for years now, with the bottom teams playing the top teams in the conference tournaments. It’s just that kind of uneasy parity, that kind of beauty, that makes handicapping the conference tournaments quite challenging.
But still, it’s quite possible that we have an excellent first hand on this weekend’s hours long Las Vegas Poker Tournament. Many upper echelon handicappers have been watching very closely the habits and styles of certain teams in the tournament, and they have been amassing pieces of information on their respective NCAA tournament teams. Some of these teams are known to be aggressive and very well coached, while others are very defensive and hard to score against. That’s where the handicappers come in, and that’s why some of the early wagers may be decent. Once the wise guys catch on, however, watch the money come in on the underdogs, especially the higher seeds from the mid-major conferences. When the value increases for the underdog teams that are assigned an Even Money or near Even Money fate to lose, the value for the sportsbook will also increase.
All of this means we could be in for a wild weekend’s college basketball action, especially in the mid-major conferences. While the majority of the betting is going to be on the higher seeds and those coming off a conference tournament, a few mid-majors could get some love as well. That’s what happened last year when Kentucky and Florida both had a couple of runs in the mid-major conferences. The sportsbooks took great risk on the Kentucky team, while the sportsbooks got burned with the Florida team. Remember, the majority of the “worthiness” of a college basketball team is determined by its conference standing and nothing else, yet the sportsbooks will often take that into account as well when setting the betting lines. There’s nothing that says a team is worth more than any other team in its conference, though the sportsbooks will try to skew the lines to toxic levels if they think the title race will be won by a major seed.
We could very well see a lot of action on theesteading teams throughout the weekend as the nation’s attention is focused on Las Vegas instead of the NCAA tournament. Handicapping the tournaments is a daily hobby and profitable bettors do it for a living, while those who gather in casinos every year only to beat the house are the ones that make money with ease. Remember that the major sportsbooks who set the lines day in and day out are privateers and not in the business of risking their own capital to win bets on the races.
It’s just a game of human nature to get all of the elements working against the bettor and that’s why some people are very successful in beating the sportsbooks. They gather all of the statistical tools available, understand the mental toughness it takes to make the correct picks, patiently study the lines and odds, and apply that all to make a very attractive proposition bet to their subscribers. If you’re a serious punter looking to make bank, you can’t afford NOT to handicap the NCAA tournament games, March Madness will test your mental toughness against the rail and you’ll only get out of it when you’re ready to compete at the highest level.
Don’t Be Scared to Pay Attention to the Teams That Are Home Inside the Prime Numbers
Another tip that will help you win at betting on the NCAA March Madness tournament is to pay close attention to the teams that are home inside the prime numbers. These are the teams that won at least 4 out of their last 6 games and the odds to win the tournament are dramatically higher than those teams who just got here. Not only that, these teams have some of the best supporting casts and some of the toughest competition in the nation.
Think about it. In the coming weeks it will be fashionable to debate about the “can’t lose” mentality of certain coaches and whether or not they can win with their club. And wouldn’t it be great to know how a coach beats the game and the players on his team? When you know how, you can evaluate the coach’s performance against the players and decide whether or not you want to hire him. I recently interviewed a successful coach who had the opportunity to compare practices and games from the current season and the season before. Let me share some of what he had to say.